Monday, January 26, 2015

Oil.. A race to the bottom...



www.pkverlegerllc.com/assets/documents/141217_Rise_of_the_ManufRacturers1.pdf

Fascinating analysis.  Short read, worth checking out.

Oil production as manufacturing. This scenario sounds very very plausible, even likely.

It compares what's happening in oil production to what happened in the computer world (from expensive mainframe to low cost distributed PCs). Think of today's Exxon as IBM making expensive mainframes (traditional expensive ...billions of $ to startup... and deep oil wells in expensive to extract places) vs fracking ($10 million, dropping rapidly to startup, with the ability to shut down then quickly restart as prices rise and fall).

Add this happening in low cost places (i.e. not the U.S.), and you can see how this is, indeed, the future of oil, and low oil prices.

Hmmmmm....lots of good there, but, even more (really) bad. Hopefully the wind, hydro and solar folks will keep the cost curve dropping fast. It's now a race to the bottom.

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